黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.11.20）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline followed by a rebound, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum despite recent gains [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping significantly to 32.8%, with some institutions estimating it as low as 27%. There was a notable division among committee members, with a 10:2 vote against rate cuts to prevent entrenched inflation [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of non-farm payroll data for October and November, leading to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve ahead of the December meeting due to the lack of key employment data [2]. - Former President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates, but the Fed's commitment to its independence has made rate cuts more challenging [2]. - Key economic data to watch includes the September non-farm report, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, among others [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a rebound after a dip, but the overall trend lacks a strong upward direction. Key support is at 3998, while resistance is noted at 4132/4133 [3][5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is in a corrective phase, with the current price action suggesting a C-wave adjustment. The recent price movements are categorized into sub-waves, with the potential for further upward movement if the price breaks above 4132/4133 [5][6]. - The recent drop to 4055 followed by a strong rebound suggests that the C-2-b wave may have completed, with the current rise potentially indicating the start of the C-2-c wave. Key levels to monitor are 4132/4133 for resistance and 4055 for support [6][7].