深观察 | 会议纪要凸显美联储分歧“常态化” 12月降息难测

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding inflation and unemployment pose significant uncertainty for the December interest rate decision, as highlighted in the minutes from the October FOMC meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve officials on the assessment of inflation threats, with some believing current inflation is near policy targets, while others emphasize persistent inflation above the 2% target [1][3]. - The October meeting saw a rare occurrence of dual dissent, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another insisting on maintaining current rates, marking the first such division since 2019 [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Data Gaps - The government shutdown has resulted in significant data gaps, complicating the Fed's decision-making process for the December meeting, as key employment reports are delayed [5]. - The Labor Department announced that the October employment report would not be released, leading traders to abandon expectations for a December rate cut [5]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The widening divisions within the Fed have led to a sharp decline in market expectations for a December rate cut, with investors now leaning towards rates remaining unchanged [6]. - This situation could hinder consumer spending during the holiday season and limit businesses' access to lower borrowing costs for new investments [6]. - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's direction, indicating potential political tensions regarding the Fed's independence [6].