Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-20 00:51Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's low-carbon development strategy remains steadfast, with expectations for a comprehensive upgrade of the carbon reduction "toolbox" centered on carbon markets and green certificate markets, which will drive structural adjustments across multiple industries [2][3]. Group 1: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market in China is set to undergo "capacity expansion + quota allocation" reforms, with an expected increase in carbon emissions coverage to 77% by 2030, leading to a long-term rise in carbon prices to 80-90 yuan per ton [4]. - The anticipated carbon market supply from CCER methodologies could reach 480-750 million tons by 2030, enhancing the market's overall supply [4]. - The carbon price increase is expected to facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity in emission-intensive industries, providing competitive advantages to green enterprises [4]. Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The green certificate market currently faces downward price pressure due to oversupply, but improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected, with prices projected to rise to 6-6.5 yuan per certificate by 2026 [5]. - The transition from "certificate and electricity separation" to "certificate and electricity integration" is anticipated, driven by domestic demand for green electricity and international policies like CBAM [5]. - High green electricity consumption ratio enterprises will gain a first-mover advantage, particularly those located in regions with abundant renewable energy [5]. Group 3: Product Carbon Footprint Management - The concept of product carbon footprint management is emerging as a new paradigm in corporate carbon management, aimed at enhancing corporate "green competitiveness" [6]. - The establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards and certification systems is underway, which will benefit exporting companies and those in raw materials and long supply chains [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The upgrade of the carbon reduction toolbox is expected to create investment opportunities in green sectors, such as sustainable aviation fuel and green electricity direct connection industries [7]. - Low-carbon enterprises in high-emission sectors, such as steel, will have cost advantages and profit potential in the carbon market, while data centers and aluminum smelting companies with high green electricity consumption ratios will face lower transition risks [7]. - Companies with higher product carbon footprint management levels in long supply chains and exporting industries will exhibit greater resilience and "green competitiveness" [7].