日本股债汇“连续三杀”：“高市早苗”交易再见，“抛售日本”交易才刚刚开始

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi is facing her first major market test since taking office, with an upcoming fiscal stimulus plan threatening to disrupt the market rally that followed her election [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index, has erased all gains since Takashi's election, reflecting investor disappointment [3][10]. - The upcoming fiscal stimulus plan is expected to exceed the previous 13.9 trillion yen plan, with some lawmakers pushing for an additional budget of around 25 trillion yen, raising concerns about its necessity [4][11]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate returning to 157, and analysts warn that further declines could prompt government intervention [5][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Concerns about the fiscal plan have led to fears of a "triple kill," where stocks, bonds, and the yen all decline simultaneously, reminiscent of market turmoil during Liz Truss's tenure in the UK [4][11]. - Rising long-term bond yields are anticipated if Takashi seeks a large budget, potentially pushing the yen weaker to 160 per dollar [8]. - Despite a weak yen typically supporting Japanese stocks, ongoing diplomatic tensions and a downturn in global tech stocks have hindered the performance of the Nikkei index [9]. Group 3: Policy Credibility - The market's negative sentiment is compounded by Takashi's recent decisions to abandon the annual budget balance target and reduce shareholder focus in corporate governance, raising investor concerns [10][11]. - The credibility of Takashi's economic agenda is under scrutiny, with analysts suggesting that a loss of confidence could lead to widespread asset sell-offs [11]. - Some investors still believe that Takashi's spending plans could ultimately support Japanese assets, potentially leading to economic overheating and necessitating interest rate hikes, which could strengthen the yen in the long term [11].