国际糖价受巴西丰产和北半球开榨压制

Group 1 - The international sugar market is facing pressure from continued high production in the Southern Hemisphere and the start of the new crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, with ICE raw sugar futures experiencing fluctuations around 15 cents per pound [1][13] - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 41.34 million tons, slightly above previous estimates, despite lower cane yield due to adverse weather conditions [1][2] - Brazil's sugar exports are expected to remain high, with October exports reaching a record 4.2049 million tons, a 12.75% increase year-on-year, indicating strong export growth during the production cycle [3] Group 2 - India's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is estimated at 34.35 million tons, with a net production of 30.95 million tons after accounting for ethanol diversion, reflecting an increase due to favorable weather and increased planting [7] - The Indian government has set a sugar export quota of 1.5 million tons for the new season, which is lower than market expectations, limiting export potential [7] - In China, sugar production for the 2024/2025 season has increased by 12.03% year-on-year, but sales have slowed, leading to a significant rise in inventory levels [8][10]