Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a significant decline in immigration expected to lead to slower labor force growth in the coming years, with net immigration projected to drop to approximately 515,000 this year [2] - The IMF warns that tightening immigration policies could have a substantial negative impact on economic growth, estimating that deporting 10% of undocumented immigrants could shrink GDP by 3.3% [2] - The recent government shutdown has delayed the release of key unemployment data, which will now be included in the November employment report scheduled for December 16 [2] Group 2 - Data from mid-September to mid-October indicates a notable increase of nearly 40,000 in the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [3] - The persistent rise in continuing claims reflects ongoing labor market weakness, which is also affecting household financial expectations and dragging down the real estate sector, as evidenced by the homebuilder confidence index remaining low for 19 consecutive months [3] - The rapid growth of capital flow within the AI sector raises concerns about the potential for AI to replace many entry-level white-collar jobs in the next five years [3] Group 3 - Concerns about the labor market are a key reason behind the Federal Reserve's consideration of restarting a monetary easing cycle, despite internal disagreements among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The absence of employment data may influence the decision-making of the Fed's voting members, with some officials advocating for rate cuts to prevent a significant rise in unemployment [4] - As of the latest updates, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting is 32.7%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is 67.3% [4]
美国就业市场红灯四起，美联储12月降息最新概率不足三成
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 01:56