Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-20 02:03Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has raised the target price for Great Wall Motors (601633)(02333) from HKD 19 to HKD 22, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Great Wall Motors reported revenue of RMB 61.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [1] - Net profit for Q3 was RMB 2.3 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 50% [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached RMB 153.6 billion, an 8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was RMB 8.6 billion, down 17% year-on-year [1] Cost and Investment Analysis - The increase in sales and R&D expenses by 55.5% and 7% respectively is attributed to the accelerated development of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels and new model launches [1] - Increased spending on brand promotion and advertising has also compressed overall gross margins [1] Future Projections - Due to profit pressures in Q3, the revenue forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 11%, and the net profit forecast has been lowered by 7% [1] - However, projections for net profit in 2026 have been increased by 5% due to anticipated growth from new models and overseas expansion [1] - Expected sales volume from 2025 to 2027 is projected to reach between 1.36 million and 1.64 million units, reflecting a growth rate of 9% to 11% [1] - Anticipated revenue growth during this period is expected to be driven by increased production capacity in Brazil and the new model cycle [1]