毕马威蔡伟：社融结构优化赋能经济高质量发展 房地产转型步入新稳态

Core Insights - The social financing scale in the first three quarters of 2025 reached a record high of 30.09 trillion yuan, driven primarily by government bonds and loans, indicating a significant shift in financial resource allocation towards innovation and public projects [1][2][3] Financing Structure Optimization - The increase in social financing was mainly driven by government bonds (38%) and RMB loans (48%), with government bond net financing contributing an additional 4.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] - The focus of funding has shifted towards local government debt, technological innovation, and social welfare, aiding in the recovery of corporate and household balance sheets [2][3] Credit Growth Trends - Although overall credit growth has slowed, key sectors such as technology, green finance, and inclusive finance have seen significant increases, with green loans alone adding 6.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 43.9% of total loan growth [3] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to enhance financial resource allocation towards innovation and public projects, supporting long-term economic development [3] Policy Recommendations - Future fiscal and monetary policies should balance short-term growth stabilization with long-term high-quality development, focusing on demand stimulation and expectation guidance [4] - Fiscal policies should prioritize enhancing domestic demand, supporting local governments in settling debts, and directing funds towards key areas such as social welfare and technological innovation [4] - Monetary policies should utilize structural tools to support critical sectors, including technology and green development, while ensuring liquidity remains ample [4] Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but recovery in housing demand is expected to be slow and uneven, influenced by recent policy relaxations in major cities [6][8] - The shift in real estate development strategy towards quality improvement rather than expansion is expected to reshape the market dynamics, with a focus on affordable housing and enhancing living standards [7][8]