央行数字货币改善跨境支付清算：现状与有效性分析

Core Insights - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and smart contracts are driving the development of digital currencies, reshaping the underlying logic of payment systems, and providing innovative opportunities for cross-border payment clearing through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [1] Traditional Cross-Border Payment Clearing System Challenges - The traditional cross-border payment clearing system, primarily based on the correspondent banking model, faces significant challenges including slow transaction speeds, high costs, lack of transparency, insufficient market coverage, and geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - Cross-border clearing is slow, taking at least 1 to 3 business days due to multiple intermediaries and varying operational hours across countries [2] - High costs are associated with the correspondent banking model, with global remittance costs reaching 6.3% in 2023, driven by various operational and compliance costs [2] - Transparency issues arise from the independent systems of different banks and institutions, leading to difficulties in tracking transactions and resolving disputes [3] - The traditional system's reliance on SWIFT for information flow exposes it to geopolitical risks, as seen in the U.S. leveraging SWIFT for sanctions [4] Current Research on CBDCs Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - CBDCs, issued by central banks, can be categorized into wholesale and retail types, with the latter aimed at enhancing domestic payment efficiency and the former focused on improving cross-border payments [5] - A significant majority (91%) of surveyed central banks are engaged in CBDC-related work, with many countries entering trial phases [5] - Three interoperability models for wholesale CBDCs are identified: compatibility, interconnection, and a single multi-currency payment system [6] Effectiveness of the mBridge Project in Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - The mBridge project, initiated by several central banks, aims to create a multilateral cooperation mechanism for cross-border payment clearing using distributed ledger technology [7][8] - The project has evolved from bilateral CBDC corridors to a standardized multilateral CBDC corridor network, allowing for direct currency exchanges and faster transaction times [8][10] - The average transaction time on the mBridge network is significantly reduced to 6-9 seconds compared to traditional systems [10] Cost Analysis of Cross-Border Payments - The mBridge project aims to reduce various cost components associated with traditional cross-border payments, including backend operational costs, foreign exchange risk costs, liquidity costs, and compliance costs [11][12][14] - The backend operational costs, which account for 27% of total costs, are expected to decrease due to improved synchronization of funds and information [12] - Foreign exchange risk costs, currently at 15%, are also anticipated to decline as participants can view real-time exchange rates [12] - Liquidity costs, which traditionally require banks to pre-fund accounts, will be reduced as mBridge allows for real-time settlement [13] - Compliance costs may rise due to the complexity of regulatory frameworks across different jurisdictions [14] Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations - The increasing demand for optimized cross-border payment environments necessitates the development of CBDCs, with a focus on enhancing the international role of the renminbi [15] - Recommendations include accelerating the establishment of multilateral cooperation mechanisms for cross-border payments and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi through digital currency applications [16][17]