【UNFX财经事件】纪要转鹰重塑利率预期 黄金在不确定性中企稳

Group 1 - Gold prices have shown a moderate upward trend, with support around $4110, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid a lack of key economic indicators due to the delay in the U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate a hawkish tone, with most officials not supporting further easing in December, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations from approximately 42% to around 30% [1][2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty in the labor market, making the upcoming non-farm payroll data crucial for reassessing December's policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - The euro has experienced a notable decline, with a daily drop of nearly 0.5%, primarily due to the FOMC minutes suggesting limited support for rate cuts, which has shifted market risk towards the dollar [2] - The probability of a rate cut has decreased to about 33%, while the dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, limiting the euro's rebound potential [2] - Despite some officials believing in the possibility of easing in December, the majority prefer to maintain the current pace, reflecting a cautious hawkish stance that has led to a reassessment of rate cut paths [2][4] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key variable influencing market direction, with volatility likely to remain high until the data is released [4] - If the non-farm data is weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, benefiting gold prices; conversely, strong data could lead to short-term adjustments in gold prices [5]