摩根士丹利：2026年全球经济增长3.2%

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that global economic growth rate may slow to 3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, stabilizing in 2027 due to resilient consumer and capital spending [1] - The growth levels in the US, China, and the Eurozone vary significantly, with the US expected to see a notable slowdown in the first half of 2026, but a rebound in the second half, leading to a projected real GDP growth rate of 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027 [2] - China's real GDP is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, supported by government policies, but will decline to 4.5% in 2027 as fiscal stimulus effects wane [2] - The Eurozone is projected to maintain moderate growth, with rates of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, influenced by fiscal support in Germany being offset by economic adjustments in France and Italy [2] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend globally, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the US projected to rise in early 2026 before gradually declining, reaching 2.6% by the end of 2026 and 2.3% by the end of 2027 [2] - The Eurozone's overall inflation expectations are anticipated to remain below the European Central Bank's 2% target, with rates expected to be 1.7% at the end of 2026 and 2027 [2] - In Japan, inflation rates are expected to slightly dip below 2% by the end of 2026 before returning to the target in 2027, while China's core CPI inflation is projected to hover below 0% due to slow economic adjustments [3] Group 3 - Major economies are expected to adopt neutral monetary policies due to moderate inflation, with the Federal Reserve likely to continue cutting rates until April, maintaining a target rate of 3%-3.25% [3] - The European Central Bank plans to keep rates unchanged but is expected to lower rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 1.5% by mid-year [3] - The Bank of England is projected to reduce rates to 2.75% in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is the only major developed market central bank expected to raise rates, potentially increasing to 0.75% in December [3]