日本央行内部鹰派抬头！弱日元或成12月加息关键推手？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must continue to normalize its monetary policy by raising real interest rates to avoid unexpected market distortions, as stated by BOJ member Junko Koeda [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Junko Koeda indicated that if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda proposes a rate hike in the coming months, she would support it, emphasizing the need for policy rate adjustments based on economic activity and price improvements [1]. - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% despite core consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate changes [1]. - A survey revealed that 53% of economists expect the BOJ to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% in the upcoming December meeting, with a median forecast of 1.00% by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Koeda noted that corporate profits remain high, the economy shows resilience, and recent food price increases may affect inflation expectations [1]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, leading to concerns about imported inflation and price pressures, prompting expectations of early rate hikes by the BOJ [4]. - Economists believe that if wage growth momentum is confirmed and aligns with government coordination, the likelihood of a December rate hike is very high [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Wage Growth - Koeda is monitoring Japan's minimum wage standards and the impact of increased employment mobility on wages, indicating that wage negotiations will be crucial for achieving inflation targets [2]. - A majority of economists (81%) expect that wage increases in the upcoming year will not exceed the previous year's 5.25%, suggesting a potential slowdown in wage growth [4]. - Despite a slight expected decline in overall corporate profits, strong corporate earnings are anticipated to support high wage growth rates through 2026 [5].