Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is a focal point for the bond market, as it could either extinguish or reignite the market's faint expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - If the non-farm payroll data is weaker than expected, the market reaction will be significantly larger compared to data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations [3] - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, has risen to a two-month high, indicating increased uncertainty ahead of the data release [3] Group 2: Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate is expected to be a critical indicator, especially in the context of labor supply constraints due to strict immigration controls [3] - A stable unemployment rate would strengthen the argument for the Federal Reserve not needing to stimulate the economy, while even a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points could signal a strong need for policy support [3]
非农就业数据今公布 或成美联储12月议息关键风向标
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 05:24