ASML Holding(US:ASML) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-20 06:17Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant technological gap between ASML's advanced lithography machines and domestic Chinese alternatives, highlighting the complexities involved in semiconductor manufacturing and the need for realistic assessments of China's capabilities in this field [3][4][10]. Summary by Sections ASML's Technology Showcase - ASML showcased its advanced DUV lithography machines, TWINSCAN XT:260 and TWINSCAN NXT:870B, at the China International Import Expo, with the XT:260 being particularly noted for its dual exposure capabilities aimed at advanced packaging [1][3]. Technical Complexity of Lithography Machines - The complexity of lithography machines extends beyond resolution metrics, involving a sophisticated integration of optics, mechanics, electronics, software, and materials, with ASML's EUV machines containing over 100,000 components from more than 5,000 suppliers [4][5]. Challenges in Domestic Development - Domestic lithography machines face significant challenges, including the need for extensive debugging and optimization, which typically requires 6-12 months post-assembly to achieve stable production [6][7]. Importance of Local Collaboration - For domestic lithography machines to achieve sustainable industrial capabilities, collaboration with local customers is essential, as real-world operational data is crucial for performance optimization and stability [6][7]. Market Dynamics and ASML's Position - ASML's market share in China is expected to decrease from a peak of 46% to around 20% by 2025, not due to domestic alternatives but rather a normalization of demand as existing orders are fulfilled [8][10]. Misinterpretation of Industry Signals - Claims of a strong domestic semiconductor industry based on increased chip exports are misleading, as these exports primarily consist of mature process chips that do not require advanced lithography technology [9][10]. Realistic Assessment of Progress - The article argues for a realistic acknowledgment of the technological gap in the semiconductor industry, stressing that genuine progress requires a grounded understanding of current capabilities rather than optimistic narratives [10][14]. Future Outlook - The future of the semiconductor industry will belong to those who face reality, invest continuously, and accumulate knowledge, with a call for a pragmatic approach to technological development in China [14][15].