光伏下半场：光储协同、体系出海、技术融合丨行业风向标

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a "cold winter," characterized by widespread losses and intense competition, yet there is a strong consensus on the industry's promising future amid global energy transformation and carbon neutrality goals [2][3] - The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference highlighted the need for collaboration to overcome "involution" in the industry, with a declaration advocating for collective responsibility and innovation [2] Industry Status - China's photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1.125 billion kilowatts by September 2025, a 45.7% increase year-on-year, marking a 3.5-fold increase since the end of 2020 [3] - The industry is facing significant challenges, including overcapacity and price declines, with polysilicon prices dropping from 300,000 yuan/ton in 2023 to below 50,000 yuan/ton, and module prices decreasing by 52% compared to 2023 [3] - The production growth rates for various photovoltaic components have declined, with polysilicon production down 32.8% year-on-year, while module production grew by 12.2% [3][5] Market Dynamics - New installations in the photovoltaic sector totaled 240.27 GW in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 49.3% year-on-year increase, but with a notable decline in growth rates in the latter half of the year [5] - The overall financial performance of the photovoltaic industry showed a narrowing of losses, with net profit losses reaching 31.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down from previous periods [11] Future Prospects - The International Energy Agency recognizes photovoltaic power as the lowest-cost electricity source historically, with expectations for further cost reductions [7] - China's commitment to renewable energy development remains strong, with targets set for non-fossil energy consumption to reach over 30% by 2035, and annual new installations of wind and solar power expected to exceed 200 GW [8] Strategies for Overcoming Challenges - Industry leaders emphasize the need to "break involution" through rational pricing and quality improvements, with government support for reducing low-price competition [9][10] - The integration of energy storage with photovoltaic systems is seen as essential for addressing the intermittency of renewable energy sources and enhancing grid stability [10][11] International Expansion - Despite challenges such as carbon tariffs and trade barriers, China's photovoltaic product exports totaled $22.05 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.9% year-on-year decline, with significant increases in the export of solar cells and modules [12][13] - Emerging markets in regions like India and Southeast Asia present new opportunities for growth, although companies must adapt to local market conditions and pricing sensitivities [13] Technological Advancements - The industry is undergoing a technological shift from P-type to N-type solar cells, with a focus on integrating various advanced technologies such as TOPCon, BC, and HJT [15][16] - The development of perovskite solar cells is ongoing, with expectations for future integration with silicon technology, although stability remains a challenge [16]