储能需求暴冲、电力瓶颈制约供给，大摩预测：铝将在明年提前陷入短缺！

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is revising its expectations for the aluminum market, with Morgan Stanley predicting a global aluminum supply shortage by 2026, earlier than previously anticipated [1][2]. Demand Side - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by energy storage systems (ESS), which are expected to increase aluminum consumption by over 2% in 2026, countering weaknesses in other sectors [3][5]. - The production of electric vehicles has increased by 30% this year, contributing to the rising demand for aluminum alongside appliances and power cables [3]. - ESS is projected to consume approximately 96,000 tons of aluminum in 2025, a 71.4% year-on-year increase, and 144,000 tons in 2026 [5]. Supply Side - The anticipated supply from Indonesia is overly optimistic, with Morgan Stanley estimating only 700,000 tons of new supply by 2026 due to slow project implementation [5]. - The aluminum smelting industry is facing competition for electricity from AI data centers, which are willing to pay significantly higher prices for power, impacting the viability of existing smelting operations [5][7]. - China's aluminum production is nearing its annual capacity limit of 45 million tons, with expected domestic supply growth of only 600,000 to 700,000 tons by 2026 [5]. Inventory and Market Structure - Current aluminum inventory in China is at a historically low level of 600,000 tons, providing strong support for aluminum prices [13]. - The increasing direct utilization of molten aluminum is expected to tighten the available deliverable supply in the futures market, further supporting price stability [13][8].