日元跌势不止，日央行12月加息箭在弦上？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a ten-month low, prompting discussions within the Bank of Japan about the need for monetary policy normalization, with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions - Junko Koeda, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, emphasized the necessity for interest rate normalization due to the current low real interest rates [1]. - Recent economic indicators in Japan are generally robust, with a potential inflation rate around 2%, suggesting that the Bank's price target is nearly achieved [5]. - A Reuters survey indicated that 53% of economists expect a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% at the upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19 [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Government Concerns - Following Koeda's speech, the yen briefly fell against the dollar before recovering, indicating mixed market expectations regarding a more aggressive rate hike commitment [1]. - The Japanese government, particularly Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and sudden" fluctuations in the exchange rate, highlighting the importance of stability [4]. - The yen's depreciation has been partly attributed to reduced expectations for recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the yen falling below 157 against the dollar, marking its weakest level since January [4]. Group 3: Diverging Market Expectations - Despite increasing calls for a rate hike, market confidence in immediate action from the Bank of Japan appears to be waning, as indicated by a decrease in overnight swap market bets for a rate increase next month [6]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for advocating expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, has urged caution regarding interest rate hikes, suggesting that the earliest possible increase might be in March next year [6]. - Wage growth remains a critical factor for the Bank of Japan's decision-making, with 81% of economists predicting that next year's wage increases will not exceed this year's 5.25% [6].