Group 1 - The report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicates a significant decline in net immigration to the U.S., dropping to approximately 515,000 this year, a nearly 70% decrease from 2 million in 2024 [1][3] - The decline in immigration is attributed to two main factors: a reduction in undocumented immigrants and a "slightly high" outflow rate of immigrants. The estimated number of deportations this year is around 285,000, exacerbating the shrinkage of the immigrant population [3][4] - The reduction in the labor force due to declining immigration could lead to a slowdown in labor force growth or even negative growth in the coming years, posing a significant risk to economic development [1][3] Group 2 - Labor shortages are expected to become more pronounced in low-skill and specific professional sectors, particularly in industries like agriculture, construction, and healthcare, which have long relied on immigrant labor [4] - The decrease in immigration may have a potential positive impact by helping to lower core service inflation, as a tight labor supply often drives up wage levels, which in turn affects service prices [4] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is at a critical juncture between balanced growth and inflation, making labor market stability essential. The findings of the report highlight the need for policymakers to find a balance between immigration policy adjustments and labor market demands to avoid long-term economic impacts [4]
美国净移民今年锐减近七成 劳动力未来或陷负增长
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 07:43