黄金惊魂一日：4000美元关口失而复得，多空激战后谁主沉浮？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility on November 18, 2025, with spot gold prices dropping below $4000 per ounce before rebounding due to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller supporting interest rate cuts [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Movements - Spot gold prices fell to $3998.2 per ounce, marking the first drop below $4000 since November 10 [3] - COMEX gold futures also declined, reaching a low of $3985.6 per ounce, while silver prices fell below $50 per ounce, with a daily drop exceeding 2% [3] - Following Waller's comments, spot gold rebounded nearly $40, closing at $4038.677 per ounce, while COMEX futures recovered above $4040 [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - Recent hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut dropping from 93.7% to 48.6% [3][4] - Waller's dovish remarks emphasized the need for rate cuts to mitigate risks in the labor market, which reignited bullish sentiment in the gold market [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [4][6] - Central banks are expected to continue significant gold purchases, with 800 tons acquired in the first three quarters of 2024, a 34% year-on-year increase [4] - Analysts predict gold prices could rise to $4900 by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from both central banks and private investors [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate will be critical for the gold market, as strong employment data could delay rate cuts, while weak data may boost gold prices [5][6] - Other significant events, such as the October CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, will also impact the gold market [6]