Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-20 07:55Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (001289)(00916), highlighting revenue growth in Q3 2025 but a decline in net profit due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and high base effects from last year's disposal of thermal power assets [1] Performance Summary - In the first three quarters, Longyuan Power achieved operating revenue of 22.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.02%. Operating cash flow increased significantly by 53.33% to 15.784 billion yuan [2] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 6.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, and a net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, down 38.19% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 34.91%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year but down 4.09 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Operational Data - The wind power utilization hours for the first three quarters were 1511 hours, a decrease of 95 hours year-on-year. The company added 1.13 million kW of wind and 1.17 million kW of solar capacity in the first three quarters, with slower growth rates [3] - Total electricity generation was 56.547 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, with wind power generation up 5.30% and solar power generation up 77.98% year-on-year. In Q3, wind power generation increased by 3.33% and solar power generation surged by 88.61% [3] - Revenue from the wind and solar segments for the first three quarters was 19.144 billion yuan and 2.806 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.82% and +64.82% [3] Profit Forecast - Short-term performance is under pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and high base effects from last year's thermal power asset disposal. However, the company’s offshore wind and large-scale projects are expected to support long-term growth. The company is anticipated to benefit from industry valuation recovery [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.690 billion yuan, 6.130 billion yuan, and 6.592 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -11.4%, +7.7%, and +7.5%, respectively [4]