Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-20 08:02Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Bilibili-W (09626), highlighting its commercial potential and significant growth in net profit and user engagement [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year increase in net profit, indicating an acceleration in profitability [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 22.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.34%, and an operating profit margin increase of 34.2% to 8.033 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted net profit for the same period reached 1.712 billion yuan, with operating cash flow improving to 5.308 billion yuan compared to 4.614 billion yuan in the previous year [1] User Engagement - The platform's Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 376 million and 117 million, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 8% and 9%, achieving historical highs [2] - Active users spend an average of 112 minutes daily on the platform, reflecting a 6% increase year-on-year, while the number of paying users grew by 17% to 35 million [2] Business Segments - The advertising segment showed strong growth, with revenue of 4.45 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 20% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in performance-based advertising [3] - In Q3 alone, advertising revenue reached 2.57 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, with AI-generated advertising materials accounting for 55% of total ad content [3] - The new game "Escape from Duckkov" sold over 3 million copies globally, indicating strong market performance, while the upcoming game "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" is expected to launch in Q1 2026 [3] - Value-added services generated 3.023 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth, with stable growth in membership and live streaming services [3] Investment Outlook - Guosen Securities is optimistic about Bilibili's commercial potential and has raised profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 1.223 billion, 2.041 billion, and 3.251 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are 2.548 billion, 3.366 billion, and 4.576 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 31x, 24x, and 17x [4] - The company is expected to benefit from its community and user advantages, with growth opportunities in gaming, advertising, and value-added services supported by new technologies like AI [4]