高市早苗的闹剧，让日本经济先中了“回旋镖”

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic turmoil in Japan, marked by a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, is attributed to a combination of internal economic stagnation and external geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China [1][6]. Economic Performance - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8%, marking the first decline in six quarters [1]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.22%, and the yen depreciated to 155.38 against the dollar, the lowest since January [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.28%, the highest level since 1999 [1]. Market Reactions - The Japanese financial market experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency, leading to significant sell-offs [1]. - The Tokyo stock market indices fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of over 2700 points [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The tensions between Japan and China, exacerbated by Prime Minister Kishi's provocative statements, have led to increased market volatility and investor caution [1][4]. - Japan's reliance on China for imports is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China [4]. Investment Climate - The ongoing depreciation of the yen is seen as a result of high fiscal stimulus and military expansion policies under Kishi, which are viewed as contradictory and unsustainable [3]. - International investors have been shorting the yen, taking advantage of the interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. [2]. Economic Dependencies - Chinese tourists are crucial to Japan's economy, contributing approximately 30% to tourism revenue; a decline in their visits could significantly impact GDP [5]. - Japan's economic structure is heavily reliant on imports from China, with critical goods such as electronics and fertilizers being predominantly sourced from there [4]. Risk Mitigation - Analysts suggest that Kishi should retract her controversial statements to mitigate economic risks and stabilize market conditions [6]. - The potential for further economic decline in Japan is anticipated in Q4 due to existing structural issues and geopolitical uncertainties [6].