高市早苗的闹剧，让日本经济先中了“回旋镖”

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP for the third quarter has decreased by an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking the first contraction in six quarters [2] - The financial market in Japan has experienced significant turmoil, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 3.22% and the yen falling to its lowest level against the dollar since January [2][3] - The decline in the stock market has been compounded by a sell-off in bonds and currency, leading to the highest 20-year bond yield since 1999 [2] Government Policy Impact - Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies have contributed to market sell-offs, particularly affecting the yen's value [2][4] - The current debt level in Japan is approximately 263% of GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and potential increases in long-term interest rates [5] - The government's push for military expansion and fiscal stimulus is seen as providing new momentum for short-selling the yen [4] Trade Relations and Risks - Tensions with China, Japan's largest trading partner, have escalated due to provocative statements from Kishi, potentially leading to greater economic repercussions for Japan [3][6] - Japan's reliance on imports from China is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China, highlighting the vulnerability of Japan's economy to trade disruptions [6][7] - A reduction in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36%, equating to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued economic decline in Japan for the fourth quarter due to existing structural issues and rising uncertainties [8] - There is a call for Kishi to retract controversial statements to mitigate risks to the economy, although it remains uncertain whether this will occur [8][9]