ATFX策略师：美国9月大非农来袭，美元指数突破100关口，多头有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Labor Department will release the delayed September non-farm payroll report today at 21:30, which was originally scheduled for October 3 but postponed due to the government shutdown. There is speculation that the October report may never be published due to a lack of data collection [1]. Group 1: Employment Data - The key focus of the September non-farm payroll report is the change in non-farm employment, with a previous value of 22,000 and an expected value of 50,000, indicating a significant anticipated increase, although the absolute figure remains low [3]. - Since May, the U.S. job market has been deteriorating, with non-farm payroll additions falling below 100,000 for four consecutive months, and a negative value recorded in June. This decline is attributed to strict immigration policies and reduced hiring in the AI sector [3]. - The ADP report for September showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, falling short of both the previous value of 54,000 and the expected value of 50,000, suggesting that the non-farm payroll data may also underperform [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The poor employment situation has led the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts in September and October, with expectations for further cuts in December if conditions do not improve [3]. - The latest weekly data indicates a loss of 2,500 jobs per week in the U.S. job market, reinforcing the bleak outlook for October and highlighting ongoing recession risks in the macroeconomic environment [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The dollar index has seen a significant rise, reaching above the 100 mark, driven by expectations surrounding the non-farm payroll data. If the data aligns with expectations, bullish momentum for the dollar index may continue [6].