币圈惊魂！比特币雪崩式暴跌，国家队撤离，万人爆仓黑幕曝光？

Group 1 - Bitcoin price fell below $93,000, marking a decline of over 20% from the historical high in early October, officially entering a bear market [1] - On the same day, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $870 million, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since its launch [1] - The market turmoil is attributed to the most intense policy divergence from the Federal Reserve in six years and the impact of the U.S. government's strategic reserve of 198,000 Bitcoins [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant capital outflow from the Bitcoin market, with a total net outflow of $1.11 billion from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs from November 13 to 17, including $532 million from BlackRock's IBIT and $89 million from Fidelity's FBTC [3] - Over the past three weeks, these funds have lost a total of $2.64 billion, equivalent to the cost of two Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, representing 2.1% of their total assets [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped from 91% to 72%, with hawkish members opposing further cuts and dovish members warning about employment market risks [6] - This divergence has led to significant volatility in the federal funds futures market, directly impacting the value of cryptocurrencies [6] Group 4 - The U.S. government holds 198,000 Bitcoins as a strategic reserve, primarily seized from law enforcement actions, with a minimum holding period of 20 years established by an executive order [7] - These Bitcoins are valued at approximately $18.5 billion at current prices, equivalent to 1.5 quarters of Apple's net profit, and represent 0.94% of the total circulating supply [7] Group 5 - The structure of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing fundamental changes, with Bitcoin market depth decreasing by 30% from this year's peak, leading to greater price volatility for large transactions [9] - On November 17, the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $1.04 billion, with over $4.5 billion liquidated in the past two weeks, equivalent to the sales of 2.25 million iPhone 15 units [9] Group 6 - The current market faces three overlapping risks: uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, continued capital withdrawal by institutional investors, and the failure of technical support levels [11] - Analysts note a significant trading zone around $90,000 for Bitcoin, but further deterioration in macro sentiment could lead to a drop to $85,000 [11] - The U.S. government's holding cost is approximately $32,000, which may serve as a psychological support level for the market [11]