管涛：关税施压，人民币为何逆势走强

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against extreme tariff pressures in 2025, contrary to previous trends, primarily due to a weakening US dollar, a recovering domestic economy, and easing trade conflicts [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Pressures and Yuan Performance - The yuan faced significant depreciation from 2018 to 2019 due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with the exchange rate dropping from 6.30 to below 7.30 [2][3]. - In 2025, the US imposed multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a peak of 145% tariffs on some products, while China retaliated with 125% tariffs [2][3]. Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Stability - Despite the tariff pressures in early 2025, the yuan remained stable, with slight appreciation observed in the first quarter, and a recovery in April after initial declines [4][5]. - By September 2025, the yuan had appreciated by 1.2% against the US dollar, with the onshore and offshore rates showing similar trends [4]. Internal and External Influences - The yuan's stability is attributed to several factors, including a significant retreat of Trump’s aggressive trade policies, a weakening US dollar, and a positive reassessment of Chinese assets by investors [5][6]. - The Chinese government’s proactive measures in response to tariff threats helped stabilize market expectations and support economic recovery [7]. US-China Trade Relations - Following intense tariff conflicts, the US and China entered a phase of trade negotiations in May 2025, which included agreements to reduce tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [8][9]. - Subsequent meetings in London and Stockholm further advanced trade discussions, improving market sentiment [8][9]. Currency Valuation and Market Dynamics - The yuan's exchange rate has remained stable despite the weakening of the US dollar and the appreciation of other currencies, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on the yuan [9][10]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed that the yuan is not significantly undervalued, with the current account surplus relative to GDP remaining within reasonable limits [12][13]. Future Outlook for the Yuan - In 2026, the yuan may benefit from several favorable factors, including potential US interest rate cuts, continued progress in US-China trade negotiations, and a recovering domestic economy [14][15]. - However, uncertainties remain, such as the resilience of the US economy and the potential for renewed tariff pressures, which could affect the yuan's performance [16].