Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2][6][7]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm employment data on November 20, 48 days late, and will not publish the October report, pushing the November data release to December 16 [2]. - Analysts predict a modest increase of 51,000 jobs in September, a recovery from August's 22,000, but with a wide range of estimates from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 105,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings projected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year [3]. - The labor market is experiencing a cooling trend, with the average monthly job additions from May to August at only 27,000, down from 96,000 in the first four months of the year [3][4]. Market Reactions and Predictions - The uncertainty surrounding the employment data has led to a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with current market expectations for a cut at 29.6% [6]. - If the September employment data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Fed, while a significant miss could increase the likelihood of a rate cut [6][8]. - Analysts note that the lack of timely economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, leading to increased internal disagreements [7]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing weakness in the labor market is prompting companies to adjust their workforce in response to economic uncertainties, as evidenced by rising layoff figures in September and October [5]. - The potential for a recession is heightened if employment data continues to show weakness, particularly if the unemployment rate rises [8].
【环球财经】美国9月非农今晚即将出炉 美联储降息博弈或加剧
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 10:58