1-10月第一、二产业固定资产投资完成额同比增速维持正增长 | 高频看宏观
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 12:58

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 18, 2025, is 1.25, a decrease of 0.03 from November 11 [1][3] - Industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.21 and 0.03 respectively, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, marking five consecutive months of decline; however, catering revenue increased by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8%, the highest level since June [25] Foreign Trade - In October, the total import and export value was 520.632 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth since March this year [25] - The import growth rate dropped from 7.4% in September to 1.0%, while the export growth rate fell from 8.3% to -1.1% [25] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][25] - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw their added value growth rates decline to 4.5% and 4.9% respectively, while the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water rebounded to 5.4% [2][25] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 18, the central bank net injected 465.1 billion yuan through open market operations, with a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [6] - The overnight interbank rate rose by 3 basis points to 1.58%, and the 7-day repurchase rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.54% [8][10] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first and third-tier cities decreased by 1.31% and 12.7% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a significant increase of 39.19% [41][42] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 9.02%, 5.04%, and 15.21% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [44] Shipping and Logistics - The coastal bulk freight index rose by 14.65 points to 1250.56, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 144 points to 2216 [37] - The container freight index for exports was 1094.03, up by 35.86 from November 7 [37] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.11 points to 99.59, and the RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 82 basis points to 7.1125 [50][52] - The VIX index rose by 7.41 points to 24.69, indicating increased market volatility [57]