LPR连续六个月按兵不动：央行为何突然“踩刹车”？背后暗藏三大信号

Group 1 - The central bank announced the latest LPR rates: 1-year at 3.0% and 5-year at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for six consecutive months, which contrasts with previous expectations of a rate cut in Q4 [1] - The central bank's recent reverse repo operation of 288.3 billion yuan indicated a clear signal that the LPR adjustment space is effectively locked, as the benchmark rate has remained at 1.50% for five months [2] - The current net interest margin of commercial banks has fallen below the 1.7% warning line, suggesting that any forced LPR reduction could significantly impact bank profits, with estimates indicating a potential loss of 1.5 billion yuan for a 1 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The central bank's approach reflects a rare stability in monetary policy amidst global trends, with the 10-year treasury yield spread between China and the US remaining inverted by over 200 basis points, indicating that a hasty rate cut could exacerbate cross-border capital flow pressures [2] - The central bank is strategically using tools like MLF and special re-lending to inject over 500 billion yuan into targeted sectors such as technology and green transformation, opting for precision over broad liquidity measures [2] - Analysts suggest that the decision to keep the LPR unchanged is a strategic move to manage market expectations ahead of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with potential room for a 20-30 basis point cut if GDP growth falls below 4.5% in Q1 next year [3]