关键经济数据“难产”，美联储12月降息预期骤降

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, particularly concerning the potential for a rate cut in December, amidst a lack of key economic data [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The October FOMC meeting minutes indicate a hawkish tilt among officials, with increasing caution towards further easing due to concerns about inflation [2]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with an almost equal number of officials supporting and opposing a rate cut in December, highlighting the uncertainty in policy direction [2][3]. - The Fed's focus on financial market stability has intensified, with concerns raised about high asset valuations and the risk of disorderly declines in stock prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The absence of critical employment data, such as the non-farm payroll report, has led to a more cautious outlook for the December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut dropping to around 30% [1][4]. - Recent soft data, including a decline in consumer confidence and negative ADP employment figures, suggests a weakening U.S. economy [4][6]. - The market's expectations for a December rate cut have shifted dramatically, influenced by rising inflation concerns and cautious statements from Fed officials [5]. Group 3: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is under pressure to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, with core inflation remaining high and labor market conditions expected to soften [6][7]. - Officials express concerns that a further decline in the labor market could lead to a significant rise in unemployment, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [6][8]. - The importance of employment data is expected to increase, with the unemployment rate becoming a critical indicator for assessing the need for further monetary stimulus [8].