美联储12月降息预期降温 对A股影响如何？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant disagreement among officials regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with a vote resulting in a 10 to 2 decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Following the release of the minutes, market expectations shifted dramatically, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from nearly 50% to around 30%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate increased to nearly 70% [1][2] - The U.S. stock market responded positively to the FOMC minutes, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.1%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.59% as of the close on November 19 [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding a potential December rate cut is heightened due to delays in key economic data releases caused by the recent U.S. government shutdown, which has left the Fed with insufficient information for decision-making [2] - The resilience of the U.S. economy, characterized by a stable job market and ongoing growth momentum, reduces the urgency for immediate policy easing, suggesting that the Fed may opt for a wait-and-see approach in December [2][3] - A potential decrease in expectations for a December rate cut could impact the domestic stock market through both funding and sentiment channels, with a stronger dollar potentially suppressing foreign capital inflows and increasing valuation volatility in sectors like AI and semiconductors that are closely linked to global markets [3]