美国100年后才还美债？美专家：中国应接受新“广场协议”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the United States' massive national debt, which is approaching $35 trillion, and the potential strategies proposed by the Trump administration to address trade deficits and debt management, particularly in relation to China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at approximately $750 billion [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Economic Strategy - The U.S. economy appears strong on the surface but harbors significant vulnerabilities, including a record trade deficit with China projected to exceed $300 billion in 2024 [3][5]. - The Trump administration is considering a new version of the Plaza Accord to manipulate currency values and adjust trade balances, aiming to devalue the dollar to improve export competitiveness [3][5]. - A proposal suggests converting short-term U.S. debt into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, effectively deferring interest payments and potentially harming foreign holders of U.S. debt [5][7]. Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China holds a substantial amount of U.S. debt, approximately $750 billion, and has been gradually reducing its holdings in favor of diversifying into gold and other assets [7][9]. - The proposed agreements could lead to a significant appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, reminiscent of Japan's experience post-Plaza Accord, which resulted in economic stagnation [7][9]. - Chinese officials have expressed strong opposition to any agreements that would involve debt restructuring or long-term bonds, citing historical precedents and the risks involved [9][10]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Implications - The international community has reacted with skepticism to the proposed strategies, with warnings from European and Japanese officials about potential market instability and the risks of a sell-off in U.S. debt [10][11]. - The article highlights the challenges of implementing a new Plaza Accord in the current geopolitical climate, where U.S.-China tensions complicate multilateral cooperation [10][13]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the U.S. strategy may backfire, leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar and further complicating the global economic landscape [10][13].