今日金价：11月20日金价大反转，黄金市场或将迎来更大变盘？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion among investors, influenced by stock market declines and geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][9][16] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have risen from $3998 to $4095 over two days, marking a total increase of 1.23% [3] - Major gold retailers in China have reported significant price increases, with prices reaching record highs [3] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a four-day decline, and the Dow Jones dropped nearly 500 points in one day, prompting investors to seek safer assets like gold [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly decreased from 94% to 50% in just a month, indicating uncertainty in monetary policy [5][9] - Conflicting statements from Federal Reserve officials have created confusion regarding the economic outlook and interest rate decisions [7][9] - Unemployment claims have risen to 1.957 million, suggesting a weakening labor market, despite the Fed's assertion that the economy is stable [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll report are critical for determining the future direction of gold prices [9][16] - If the Fed signals a potential early rate cut, gold prices could exceed $4100, while cautious language could lead to a pullback to around $4036-$4037 [9] - The non-farm payroll report, delayed by government shutdown, is seen as a crucial indicator for market sentiment and gold price movements [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, considering current gold prices are at a high level, and to establish a phased buying strategy to average costs [10][12] - For those in need of gold for consumption, early purchases are recommended to avoid future price increases [12] - It is essential to avoid "one-price" gold purchases due to hidden costs and to opt for gold sold by weight [13]