AI估值溢价：是“繁荣”还是“泡沫”？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the valuation of the AI industry is highlighted by Nvidia's strong financial report, which has positively influenced related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, indicating optimism about the industry's long-term growth potential despite concerns about capital expenditure and financing cycles [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - Current discussions around the "AI bubble" focus on the high valuations of AI companies, with comparisons drawn to the 1999 internet bubble. The S&P 500's current PE ratio stands at 22.8, above the historical average of 16.8 but below the peak of 24.1. The S&P Information Technology Index has a PE of 30.4, significantly lower than the internet bubble's peak of 58.1 [1][2]. - The relative valuation of the S&P 500 compared to Germany's DAX is at its median since 2019, indicating that U.S. stocks are not at a high valuation level. The valuation of leading stocks, such as the Magnificent Seven (Mag7), is also relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Industry Development Stage - The AI industry is considered to be in its early stages, with the current market sentiment reflecting a "frenzy" typical of initial phases of technological revolutions. Research indicates that the AI sector is at a historical 54% percentile, akin to the early stages of the internet bubble [3]. - The current AI market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations and preliminary validation," with significant growth in computing power and a focus on the expansion of platform and application layers in the next phase [3]. Macro Environment and Bubble Concerns - The potential for an AI bubble to burst is closely tied to macroeconomic policies. Current conditions, including sustained profitability in AI companies and a relatively loose liquidity environment, do not suggest imminent market corrections [4][5]. - A key difference from the 2000 macro environment is the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reducing the chances of a bubble being burst through aggressive rate hikes as seen in the past [5]. - The next 2 to 3 years will be critical for validating the AI industry's value, with the potential for a "golden age" of capital in the sector following any bubble phase [5].