Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-20 18:41Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is driven by a combination of strong demand, declining inventory, supportive policies, and increased funding in the industry [5][26]. Group 1: Price Movement - On November 17, lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up, reaching 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high with a weekly increase of 6.15% and a volatility of 9.16% [7]. - The surge in futures prices led to significant increases in stock prices of leading lithium companies, with Tianhua New Energy rising by 16.7% and other major stocks hitting their daily limits [7][3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - In October, domestic power battery installations reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with new energy vehicle production and sales also on the rise [9]. - The demand for lithium is further bolstered by the new energy storage sector, with the National Development and Reform Commission projecting that new energy storage installations will reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027 [9]. Group 3: Inventory Trends - Lithium carbonate social inventory has been declining for 12 consecutive weeks, with total inventory across the industry chain at 84,234 tons in October [11]. - The reduction in inventory levels across smelters, cathode manufacturers, and battery producers indicates a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics [11]. Group 4: Policy and Funding Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, aiming to rationally layout lithium carbonate projects and prevent low-level redundant construction [14]. - Starting January, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, stimulating short-term demand as manufacturers and consumers rush to make purchases before the year-end [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Institutional investors have been actively positioning themselves in the lithium sector, with the top ten stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, accounting for 60% of the index [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts global lithium carbonate demand could reach 1.55 million tons by 2025, with a potential 30% increase to 1.9 million tons in 2026, suggesting that prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton if demand growth surpasses 40% [19]. Group 6: Current Market Status - As of November 19, lithium carbonate futures continued to rise slightly by 0.8%, settling at 95,960 yuan/ton, while spot prices also showed a modest recovery [20][22]. - The domestic lithium carbonate operating rate remains low at around 45%, primarily due to cost issues faced by smaller producers [22]. - In October, lithium carbonate imports are expected to decrease by approximately 5% month-on-month, indicating a tight supply situation [24].