碳市场扩围“路线图”官宣 2027年化工石化民航造纸全入场

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]