关键经济数据“难产” 美联储12月降息预期骤降

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, compounded by the lack of key employment data, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Meeting Minutes Insights - The October FOMC meeting minutes revealed a hawkish tilt among officials, with growing concerns about inflation and a cautious stance on further easing [1][2]. - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve members, with some advocating for further rate cuts while many prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a lack of consensus [2][3]. - Financial market stability has become a concern, with some officials highlighting the risks of overvalued asset prices and potential disorderly declines in stock prices [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Projections - The absence of critical employment data, such as the non-farm payroll report, has led to a belief that the Fed may choose to hold rates steady in December [4][5]. - Recent alternative economic indicators suggest a weakening U.S. economy, with manufacturing and consumer confidence metrics showing declines [4][5]. - Core inflation remains high, influenced by tariffs, which complicates the Fed's dual mandate of stabilizing employment and controlling inflation [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed is expected to adopt a data-dependent approach moving forward, with ongoing divisions among officials likely to persist [7]. - The importance of employment data is anticipated to rise, particularly in light of potential labor market changes due to immigration policy [7]. - The Fed's interest rate decisions may be influenced by political cycles, with the current chair's term extending until May 2026, potentially affecting future monetary policy direction [7].