宣涨落地不及预期 集运指数（欧线）冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the European shipping index is primarily due to the actual December freight rates falling short of previous expectations, indicating a cautious pricing strategy from major shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The European shipping index experienced a significant drop after an initial rise, with the main contract falling to 1567 points, a decrease of 1.39% [1]. - Maersk's announcement of a December opening price at $2500/FEU is substantially lower than the previously announced $3200/FEU, signaling a shift towards more conservative pricing [1][2]. - Despite a decent loading rate in late November, the market has not established a widespread peak season tension, leading to diminished confidence in sustained freight rate increases [1][2]. Group 2: Capacity and Demand - Weekly capacity for the European route is around 270,000 TEU for November and approximately 300,000 TEU for December, indicating some growth in capacity [2]. - The demand side showed good performance in late November, with expectations for continued improvement in December [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is significant divergence in market expectations for the 2602 contract, with potential low points around 1500 if December rates drop to 80% of expectations, while successful price maintenance could lead to higher levels [3]. - The outlook for the 2512 and 2602 contracts remains optimistic due to anticipated seasonal demand, but attention is needed on other shipping companies' pricing and December cargo volumes [3]. - The future trend of the European shipping index is expected to be weakly oscillating, driven by the actual execution of December rates and the effectiveness of January price increases [3].