Core Viewpoint - SanDisk's stock price plummeted approximately 20% due to a combination of a broader tech sell-off, factory cost concerns, and uncertainty regarding the sustainability of NAND flash price increases [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - SanDisk reported strong Q1 revenue of $2.31 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22, significantly exceeding the expected $0.58 [4]. - The company raised its guidance for Q2, projecting EPS between $3.00 and $3.40, well above the market consensus of $1.77, with revenue expectations of $2.55 to $2.65 billion [4]. Group 2: Cost and Profitability Concerns - Despite strong performance, SanDisk faces challenges with approximately $60 million in high wafer start-up costs and an additional $10 to $15 million in underutilization costs impacting recent profit margins [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that while profit margins are expected to "significantly improve" as wafer costs decline, the timeline for this improvement remains uncertain [5]. Group 3: NAND Market Dynamics - The NAND market has seen significant price increases, with Western Digital raising NAND contract prices by 50% in November, and the spot price for 1TB TLC NAND nearly doubling from $4.80 to $10.70 since July [6]. - There is currently a 5% supply shortfall in the NAND market, but strong pricing power is raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation and profit margin uncertainty if demand collapses after customers complete their stockpiling [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Analyst Opinions - SanDisk's valuation is considered high, with the stock price previously exceeding the MarketBeat consensus target of $183, and a price-to-earnings ratio approaching 765, indicating minimal margin of safety for momentum-chasing investors [7][8]. - Analyst opinions are divided, with Bernstein and Fox Advisors maintaining "strong buy" ratings based on tight NAND supply supporting premium valuations, while Weiss Ratings holds a "sell" rating due to valuation and execution risks [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that for stock price stabilization, investors need to see a substantial reduction in wafer start-up costs before 2026 and stable NAND pricing even amid tightening supply; failure to meet either condition could lead to prolonged adjustments [9].
“存储巨头”闪迪单日暴跌20%，强劲业绩难敌利润与估值双重隐忧