隔夜，美股为何巨震暴跌？高盛给出九大理由

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal despite strong earnings reports from Nvidia and a favorable non-farm payroll report, leading to a significant sell-off that wiped out over $2 trillion in market value [1][21] - Investors are now in a "profit and loss protection mode," focusing excessively on hedging against market risks rather than capitalizing on positive news [2][4] Group 1: Market Reversal Factors - Nvidia's strong earnings report did not trigger the expected bullish sentiment, as the stock ultimately closed down 3%, indicating that good news not being rewarded can be a bad omen [4] - Concerns over private credit risks were raised by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in asset valuations that could impact the financial system [6] - The September non-farm payroll report, while stable, did not provide clear guidance for the Fed's December interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate cut only slightly increasing to 35% [8] Group 2: Technical and Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin drop below the psychological threshold of $90,000, contributing to a broader sell-off in risk assets [9] - Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) were already in a heavily long position, and as the market breached short-term technical levels, selling pressure accelerated [9][11] - The return of short positions was noted as market momentum reversed, with significant selling from long-term funds and a shift in hedge fund positions from net buying to net selling [10][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The market displayed extreme fragility, with large-cap tech stocks initially rising but ultimately falling in line with the broader market trend [14] - A significant drop in liquidity was observed, with the top buy-sell liquidity for the S&P 500 index falling to around $5 million, well below the average of $11 million for the year [10][13] - The proportion of ETF trading surged to 41%, indicating that macro-driven trading was dominating the market, exacerbating the downward momentum [10][13] Group 4: Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming expiration of a massive $3.1 trillion in options, including $1.7 trillion in SPX index options, is expected to increase market volatility and could exert a gravitational effect on asset prices [21][23]