Group 1: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley reports an improved outlook for the aluminum industry, driven by demand from energy storage systems (ESS) exceeding expectations and supply challenges due to power issues [1] - The demand for aluminum in China is expected to see significant growth due to ESS and other consumer electronics, with the share of ESS in China's overall battery installations increasing from 25% in June to over 40% [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that every 100GWh of ESS will consume 160,000 tons of aluminum, projecting global ESS capacity to reach 350GWh in 2024 and 600GWh in 2025, with a further 50% growth expected by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply Challenges - Supply is facing challenges, with global production expected to reach approximately 1.4 million tons by 2026, and Indonesia identified as a key new supply source [2] - Due to China's commitment to not build new coal-fired power plants abroad for carbon neutrality, local partnerships will be necessary for Chinese companies to secure power, which may delay production [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that Indonesia's new supply will only add 700,000 tons by 2026, and global production interruptions this year have already resulted in a loss of about 700,000 tons of capacity [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Support - Current aluminum inventory in China is low at 600,000 tons, which is relatively low compared to historical levels over the past five years [2] - The government encourages increasing the proportion of molten aluminum from approximately 77% to 90% by 2027, which may reduce the availability of deliverable aluminum ingots in the futures market, thereby supporting aluminum prices [2]
大摩：铝需求激增叠加供应受限 上调中国宏桥目标价至44.7港元