3 6 Ke·2025-11-21 01:09Core Insights - The traditional growth logic of online music platforms, centered around "paid" and "copyright," is showing signs of instability as Tencent Music's growth stabilizes and NetEase Cloud Music experiences stagnation in revenue growth [1][2] - The industry appears to be entering a "next problem cycle," with ByteDance's free music platforms rapidly gaining user engagement, leading to a clear "cross curve" where mainstream paid platforms are slowing down while free platforms are surging [1][8] Tencent Music Performance - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 84.6 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, marking a new high since last year [2] - The adjusted net profit reached 24.1 billion yuan, with online music service revenue growing by 27.2% to 69.7 billion yuan [2][4] - Online music paying users increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 125.7 million, with ARPPU rising from 10.8 yuan to 11.9 yuan, a growth of 10.2% [4] User Engagement Trends - Despite strong revenue figures, Tencent Music's online music mobile MAU declined by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of decline [5] - The growth of paying users is slowing, with a noticeable decrease in the net increase of paying users since Q2 2024, leading to a negative market reaction with a nearly 13% drop in stock price post-earnings report [5][7] NetEase Cloud Music Performance - NetEase Cloud Music reported a net revenue of 2.0 billion yuan (approximately 275.9 million USD) in Q3 2025, a decline of 1.8% compared to the same period last year [5] - The gross profit for Q3 was 655.2 million yuan, remaining relatively stable year-on-year [5] Industry Challenges - A common issue for both platforms is the slowing subscription growth, indicating that the traditional "copyright barrier + library scale" logic is no longer sufficient for high growth [7] - High copyright costs and a slowdown in the addition of premium content, combined with fragmented listening habits among younger users, are diminishing the persuasive power of library differentiation [7] Rise of Free Music Platforms - ByteDance's free music platforms, such as Soda Music and Tomato Listening, are rapidly gaining traction, with Soda Music's MAU growing from 6 million to 120 million in just three years, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 90.7% [10][12] - The user base of Tencent's KuGou and QQ Music has seen a decline, with significant user migration to Soda Music, which has captured over 17 million users from Tencent Music [12] Strategic Shifts - The competition is shifting from a focus on paid platforms to a battle for user attention, with free platforms leveraging algorithm-driven recommendations to attract users who are less sensitive to copyright and payment [14][15] - Tencent Music is exploring global partnerships and expanding its content supply system while launching a simplified music service targeting students and light users to counter the impact of ByteDance's free offerings [15][19] Conclusion - The music industry is transitioning from a "paid model competition" to a "attention model competition," indicating a significant structural change driven by the rise of free music platforms [20][21]