强成本VS弱需求 PTA上行乏力

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to persist from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil prices to the downstream industry is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2] - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8% as of November 14, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while Asian PX operating rates fell to 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline is due to maintenance at several PX facilities in Asia, tightening PX spot market supply [2] - The PX market has seen a strong performance, with PXN absolute prices rising to $257 per ton, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [3] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock days at 13-14 days [3] - The recent removal of BIS certification for PTA and polyester products in India may accelerate inventory reduction if export demand materializes [3] Group 3: Polyester Production - The domestic polyester industry is projected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an expected average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA [4] - Despite a high operating rate, the polyester industry has seen a decline in raw material stock levels and a weakening order atmosphere in the weaving sector [4] - The market is expected to face a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with PTA futures prices projected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [4]