任泽平：未来房价上涨的3大核心信号

Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to recover as policies shift from "relaxation" to "encouragement" with significant changes in positioning [1] - Economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, which could support the housing market alongside policy catalysts [1] - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated, particularly in hotspot cities where population influx and land supply constraints are expected to drive up prices [2] Policy Shifts - The policy environment is moving towards a "combination punch" approach, including the full lifting of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and significant reductions in mortgage rates and taxes [1] - The expectation is that purchase restrictions will be fully lifted in the outer rings of first-tier cities within three years [1] Economic Indicators - Leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI new orders index are showing signs of recovery, which historically correlates with rising housing prices in major cities [1] - Other relevant indicators include the urban resident income confidence index and employment expectation index, both of which have shown positive trends in previous housing market upswings [1] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The housing market is fundamentally driven by supply and demand, with an expected improvement in the supply-demand balance in key cities due to population growth and decreasing land supply [2] - Notable land auction results in cities like Beijing and Shanghai indicate strong market confidence in core urban areas, with premium land sales reflecting long-term optimism [2] - Key cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen are projected to see significant population increases, which will sustain housing demand [2]