美联储降息理由将越来越不充分？大摩已率先“撕报告”！

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing a robust September jobs report indicating economic resilience [1] - The strong employment data suggests that the summer economic slowdown may have been overstated, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate attributed to a rise in labor force participation rather than layoffs [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates in January, April, and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25%, consistent with previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, believes that the report indicates potential employment growth remains weak, suggesting the Fed needs to continue cutting rates to fulfill its full employment mandate, though uncertainty remains about immediate actions [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that the September jobs report is crucial for the Fed's focus on inflation and maintaining a somewhat restrictive policy stance, emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy tight to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target [2] - Many Fed officials have indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts this year due to inflation remaining above the 2% target, with analysts suggesting that without stronger evidence of a need for urgent support in the job market, a more cautious approach may prevail [2] Group 3 - Analysts note that upcoming fiscal stimulus measures, including personal tax cuts and accelerated depreciation allowances, may strengthen the U.S. economy next year, further supporting arguments against excessive rate cuts [3] - The minutes from the October 28-29 meeting indicate that Fed staff have raised their outlook for next year, reflecting expectations of stronger potential output growth and improved financial conditions [3] - John Roberts, former Fed research department deputy director, suggests that changes from the Inflation Reduction Act could boost economic growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points in early 2026, potentially lowering the unemployment rate and preventing at least one anticipated rate cut by the Fed [3]