芦哲：经济扩张与AI投资的双响

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that as the midterm election political cycle approaches, Trump is expected to promote a more accommodative fiscal and monetary policy mix in 2026, allowing the U.S. economy to exit the current soft landing phase and return to expansion. AI is identified as a significant contributor to U.S. growth during this period [1][2][3] - The U.S. economy has transitioned from overheating in 2021 and stagflation in 2022 to a soft landing phase from 2023 onwards. As the output gap closes, the economy is entering the latter half of the soft landing phase [5][6] - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policy changes in 2026 may pose upward risks to inflation, particularly if there are significant fluctuations in energy and commodity supply, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s stagflation [2][22] Group 2 - AI-related investments are projected to surpass private consumption in contributing to U.S. GDP growth in 2025, highlighting its importance in the current economic landscape where consumption growth is slowing [2][27] - The demand side of the AI wave is expected to amplify the wealth effect on U.S. residents, replacing excess savings as a key support for consumer spending. However, this may exacerbate the negative impacts of the "K-shaped" economic model, necessitating additional fiscal policies [2][37] - On the supply side, the impact of AI on U.S. non-farm employment is currently manageable, and its influence on total factor productivity is expected to be positive and gradual [2][46] Group 3 - The current economic cycle is characterized by a significant drop in total demand, yet it remains above 2019 levels, while total supply has improved but is still below 2019 levels. This situation has resulted in a macroeconomic environment where growth is returning to equilibrium levels, but inflation remains sticky around 3% [11][12] - Analysts predict that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 will show a trend of "first suppression, then rise," with a notable increase expected in Q1 2026 following the end of a government shutdown [12][19] - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policies are expected to provide a significant boost to GDP growth in the latter half of 2026, with projections indicating a recovery to an expansion range of 2.5% to 3.5% [19][22] Group 4 - AI investments are expected to continue driving U.S. economic growth, with projections indicating that AI-related investments could contribute an average of 0.8% to 1.2% to GDP growth in 2026 [51][65] - The current AI investment cycle is still in its early stages, with significant demand for fixed asset investments, particularly in data center construction and hardware, indicating substantial growth potential [64][65] - The sustainability of AI investments is a key concern, with comparisons drawn to the 1990s internet boom, but current AI companies are supported by strong cash flows and profitability, reducing the risk of a bubble [52][56]