独家专访DWS全球研究主管Johannes Mueller：AI革命与投资大变局

Group 1: AI and Economic Impact - The current AI hype may be slightly overestimated in the short term, while its long-term benefits could be underestimated, particularly in relation to labor market changes and demographic shifts [2][3] - Historical evidence suggests that transformative technologies require time to develop supporting infrastructure and skills before realizing their full potential [1][2] - The key question remains whether AI can enhance global productivity to justify the substantial investments made, particularly by U.S. companies [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Concerns exist regarding the high concentration of a few stocks in the U.S. market, which accounts for one-third of the total market share, raising questions about future market performance [4] - The current market has absorbed many positive expectations, leading to a cautious outlook on whether future conditions will meet these optimistic projections [4] - The valuation of U.S. stocks is considered high compared to historical averages, prompting investors to seek opportunities in markets like China and Europe [6][7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Chinese and European markets are gaining attention as potential investment alternatives due to their relatively lower valuations compared to the U.S. market [6][7] - The "DeepSeek moment" highlights the emergence of competitive technology sectors in China, suggesting that significant investment opportunities may exist outside the U.S. [7][8] - European companies in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, defense, and luxury goods may offer attractive investment prospects despite the region not being a leader in AI technology [8] Group 4: Future Market Considerations - The market is expected to reflect fundamental economic performance over time, despite potential short-term volatility and panic [9][10] - Future market drivers will likely shift focus back to economic fundamentals, especially as inflation data does not yet show significant impacts from tariffs [9][10] - The potential for lower market returns in the coming years is acknowledged, as stock market gains have outpaced corporate profit growth in the early 2020s [10]