Core Viewpoint - Company maintains "outperforming the industry" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), citing improvements in its prescription drug business and strong growth in respiratory and cardiovascular sectors [1] Performance Summary - Company reported 1-3Q25 revenue of 19.891 billion, down 12.3% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.511 billion, down 7.1% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 3.079 billion, down 23.0% YoY, aligning with expectations [1] - 3Q25 revenue reached 6.618 billion, showing a 3.4% YoY increase and a 5.7% QoQ increase, indicating stabilization in performance [1] - Prescription drug revenue in 3Q25 was 5.202 billion, with a YoY increase of 1.6% and a QoQ increase of 9.6% [1] - Breakdown of 3Q25 prescription drug revenue: - Neurological diseases: 1.914 billion (YoY -4.2%) - Oncology: 0.594 billion (YoY -47.2%) - Anti-infection: 0.826 billion (YoY -8.6%) - Cardiovascular: 0.474 billion (YoY +17.8%) - Respiratory: 0.320 billion (YoY +72.7%) - Digestive: 0.248 billion (YoY +13.7%) - Other fields: 0.362 billion (YoY +25.6%) [1] - Raw material drug revenue in 3Q25 was 1.415 billion, up 10.5% YoY but down 6.4% QoQ [1] R&D Summary - Company continues to drive innovation with ongoing development of its small nucleic acid pipeline, with PCSK9 expected to enter Phase III by the end of 2025 [2] - Other clinical projects include LPa, AGT, ANGPTL3, and C5, targeting key chronic diseases such as dyslipidemia and hypertension [2] - Company is also exploring targeted delivery for eye, lung, fat, and muscle applications [2] - Key pipeline products include Anlotinib (HER2 bispecific), SYS6010 (EGFR ADC), and SYS6091 (HER2 ADC), all progressing well [2] Overseas Business Development Summary - Company is enhancing its business development strategy and building an international licensing platform [3] - In 1-3Q25, the company achieved licensing revenue of 1.540 billion, with a significant deal involving the licensing of SYH2086 (oral small molecule GLP-1) to Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, including a $120 million upfront payment and potential milestones of up to $1.955 billion [3] - The company has several innovative products in its pipeline, such as EGFR ADC and SiRNA series, which are expected to lead to more licensing agreements and milestone revenue recognition [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to increased R&D investment, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 12% and 15% to 4.760 billion and 5.353 billion, respectively [4] - Current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.1x for 2025 and 15.0x for 2026 [4] - The company maintains its outperforming rating while reducing the target price by 15% to HKD 11.00, reflecting a P/E of 24.4x and 21.4x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 42.5% [4]
中金：维持石药集团(01093)“跑赢行业”评级 业绩企稳与研发管线持续推进