国际观察｜透视破产潮背后的德国经济困局

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant wave of bankruptcies in Germany, driven by high energy costs, ineffective corporate transformations, and the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a challenging economic environment not seen in years [1][2]. Group 1: Bankruptcy Trends - Multiple research institutions predict that the number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany may reach a record high in over a decade this year [1]. - The bankruptcy wave is affecting various sectors, including traditional consumer goods, with companies facing unstable capacity utilization and high fixed costs [2]. - The situation is particularly dire for medium-sized manufacturing firms, which are considered the backbone of the German economy, as they struggle with high energy prices and reduced export orders [2]. Group 2: Employment Impact - The number of bankruptcy applications submitted in August reached 1,979, marking a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with total creditor claims amounting to €5.4 billion [3]. - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce indicates that nearly 30% of businesses expect further deterioration in their operations in the coming months [3]. - Major companies are also announcing significant layoffs, with DHL planning to cut around 8,000 jobs and Siemens about 6,000 by September 2027 [3]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - Economists suggest that the bankruptcy trend reflects long-standing structural issues within the German economy, including heavy reliance on medium-sized enterprises and external markets [4]. - The complex administrative processes and external tariff barriers are rapidly compressing the profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 4: Government Response - In response to the economic downturn and rising bankruptcies, the German federal government aims to revitalize the economy through spending cuts, bureaucratic reduction, and investment stimulation [5]. - Experts emphasize the need for increased productivity, innovation, and investment to return to a stable growth trajectory, while also advocating for the acceleration of digitalization and supply chain diversification [5].