碳酸锂接下来怎么走？机构对后续走势持谨慎态度

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 70% from their low earlier this year, and a tight supply-demand balance is expected in 2024, leading to a range-bound price pattern [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are a key driver of price increases, with domestic lithium carbonate social inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days dropping to a record low of 28.1 days [3]. - High demand for lithium chemicals is evident, with a weekly inventory decline of approximately 4,000 tons reported by Goldman Sachs, and concerns over the slow recovery of the Ningde Times Yichun lithium mine, which previously contributed about 7,000-8,000 tons of lithium carbonate monthly, representing about 10% of domestic demand [3]. - Overseas supply from South Africa and Nigeria is arriving at low costs, with lithium spodumene priced around $500 per ton, although some projects in Mali are deemed economically unviable [3]. Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that lithium carbonate pricing will stabilize between 80,000-100,000 RMB per ton (approximately $10,000-$12,500 per ton, excluding VAT) due to the current supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Despite positive demand prospects and declining inventories, an increase in elastic supply is expected, particularly from Africa, which may lead to further supply increases if prices rise [4]. - The average price of lithium carbonate is projected to be $8,900 per ton by mid-2026, driven by strong domestic demand and supply constraints [4]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future price trends, noting that while the current price surge is driven by inventory depletion and energy storage demand, the pace of lithium mine recoveries in Jiangxi should be monitored closely [5][6]. - Concerns are raised about a potential seasonal decline in energy storage cell demand, with October's production exceeding sales for the second consecutive month, indicating a possible weakening in demand [6]. - The current high trading volume of lithium carbonate futures suggests that while short-term price increases may continue, the sustainability of the supply-demand balance needs further validation [6].